PhD in earth sciences. The study, in which Sezim Ezgi Güvercin was one of two researchers and published in an international peer-reviewed journal, included a notable discovery related to the Marmara fault. Accordingly, there is a high possibility that the error will break into many pieces, not one piece. Accordingly, the intensity of the possible Istanbul earthquake will be lower than expected. (News: Melike Şahin)
A study of faults under the Marmara Sea was recently published in an international journal. This study says something else about the possible Marmara earthquake. It is stated that there can be more than one earthquake and moreover, the magnitude of these earthquakes can be less than 7.
This study, different from the most talked about research on disaster scenarios, was conducted by geologist, Ph.D., who is continuing his research in the United States. It belongs to Sezim Ezgi Güvercin and her advisor, Professor Sylvain Barbot.
In the study published in the journal “Earth and Environmental Communications”, the thousand-year cycle of the Marmara fault was numerically simulated. It was revealed that the bug is more likely to break into multiple pieces than one piece.
This suggests that the magnitude of the expected Istanbul earthquake may be smaller than the scenarios presented so far.
“Barriers that resist breaking”
Dr. Sezim Ezgi Güvercin made the claim about the “thermal barrier,” which was the basis for her analysis. The study shows that differences in temperature and rock type along the main Marmara fault act as a barrier that can prevent ruptures.
Dr. Sezim Ezgi Güvercin had the following to say on the subject: “Faults release energy by crawling. There are temperature anomalies. This geological barrier shows this in our simulation. We see that any earthquake in the east or west cannot overcome this barrier. It is quite resistant to rupture.
“It seems impossible to have ONE SINGLE EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO”
Sezim Ezgi Güvercin said: “As a result of these simulations, we realized that a single Marmara earthquake scenario, as thought so far, does not seem very feasible. In this case, we see that it breaks into several pieces with earthquakes between 6 and 6.8 magnitude. In the scenario where earthquakes at shorter intervals break into pieces, I say this for the Kumburgaz and 6.8 segments. Adalar. We show that there will be earthquakes of magnitude 7 and a little above 7 that will damage Istanbul.”
Sezim Ezgi Güvercin is currently conducting a similar study on the East Anatolian Fault.
